“Life is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you are going to get.”
The famous Forest Gump line also works for blind box, the latest trend that is taking over China by storm, reaching into the pockets of millions of collectors.
While most of us like to see what we are buying before we hand over our cash, the new trend of blind box is turning this concept on its head, and is now becoming a phenomenon that reaches beyond retail.
Much of the appeal of the blind box concept lies in the delivery and unwrapping experience – the adrenaline rush with collection, surprise and social engagement all playing a part. Consumers, often driven by a certain gambling mentality, are keen to spend on blind boxes, which could deliver high levels of emotional or social satisfaction for a relatively low price.
Recently, a new trend known as "leftover blind boxes" has emerged in several Chinese cities, offering discounted rates on randomly packed boxes of unsold food and beverage to customers.
This trend has gained popularity among young people who eagerly grab these deals at certain moment to purchase the food at reduced prices. And they usually run out quickly.
Sushi, for example, originally priced at over 100 yuan or Chinese pastries and cooked food priced at over 30 yuan are up for grabs at around 70 percent discounts on WeChat's mini program Xishi Magic Bag.
For those who love a bargain, the experience are likened to the thrill of buying lottery tickets. And merchants are using these "mystery gift boxes" as a promotional tool to attract more environmentally conscious consumers, especially younger ones.
But the party is likely to be short-lived, since China’s top market regulator issued guidelines yesterday on regulating business practices for mystery boxes, strengthening compliance management of the fast-growing yet thinly regulated market.
The new stipulations, which have been open to public opinion on the website of the State Administration for Market Regulation in a draft proposal last August, state that food, cosmetics, medicines and live animals, among other dangerous and banned items, should not be sold in the way of blind box.
The rules also said companies shall not bid up prices and should reasonably determine prices of blind boxes based on production and operation costs as well as market supply and demand. Prices of blind box products should not have a big gap from that of non-blind box products of the same quality.
Mystery box vendors are banned from selling items to minors under the age of eight without the consent of guardians, according to the guidelines, released after market close on Thursday and effective immediately.
The Chinese market for mystery boxes has grown quickly, contributing to the fast expansion of domestic toymakers such as Pop Mart, whose Hong Kong listed shares jumped as much as 5% in the morning session today.
The company responded in a statement yesterday that the guideline is of positive significance and can offer clear directions to companies to operate in a standardized way, which helps the sector create a better business environment, and promised to actively cooperate with the regulator in implementing them.
Small boxes, big business
Blind box, which literally means a box with a random assortment of novelty items inside, has witnessed exponential growth over the past few years.
The rise of the blind box selling strategy, in which consumers are not aware of the exact content of a package until they open it, is becoming a phenomenon in China as retail brands looked for innovative ways to attract customers and boost sales during the COVID-19 pandemic. This concept has been revolutionized for the modern day, with Chinese consumers hooked on the addictive feeling of suspense.
While the concept itself is nothing new as it first appeared with Japanese gashapon culture in the 1980s, the business strategy was popularized in China by Pop Mart, which has become the unquestionable market leader.
Founded in 2010, Pop Mart is one of the most famous blind box brands in China. The Beijing-based company started just like hundreds, if not thousands creative lifestyle brands, but later on saw the sales of its designer toys increased dramatically. In 2015, the company switched gears to compete in the designer toys market almost exclusively, with a focus on the blind box model, and became the first home-grown brands to ever capitalize on people's growing toys collecting addiction.
With over 300 stores and 2000 plus vending machines across China, Pop Mart sells toy figurines in sets of twelve, with the most famous called ‘Molly’ doll. Each set has the potential to include one rare hidden figurine that only appears in around one out of every 144 boxes.
For Chinese Valentine's Day in 2021, the luxury brand Lanvin came on board with a campaign on the Chinese social media platform WeChat featuring the blind box concept, where for 500 yuan consumers entered a draw to redeem prizes at Lanvin vending machines containing silk scarves, sneakers and even handbags.
The campaign was immensely successful at gaining the attention of young Chinese consumers, attracting over 50,000 game-players within a month and garnering over five times the daily average views of the articles.
It went on with a sheer variety of industries and brands offering blind boxes, as famous brands like Starbucks, McDonald’s, Pringles, Amazon and Ikea have jumped on the blind box bandwagon. Even the Chinese travel industry has got on board, with airlines selling blind box domestic flights to randomly-chosen destinations. Cosmetics and beauty products retailer Sephora also employed this method by offering customers a box containing different sets of undisclosed products.
The blind box selling strategy is an example of probabilistic selling or surprise offering, helping retail brands to achieve multiple goals, such as stimulating customer conversion, improving repurchase rates, and inventory clearance.
This blind box mania is such that it even gave rise to a new buzzword - the blind box economy.
According to market research firm Qianzhan Intelligence, the blind box market was worth 7.4 billion yuan in 2019, and is predicted to soar by over 75% to 30 billion yuan by 2024.
Amid a consumerist frenzy, on the primary market, the blind box economy has also become a darling of venture capitalists. More than 50 art toy brands received financing in 2021 from big-name investors including Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com, Sequoia China and a slew of other top institutional venture funds.
Eyeing Gen-Z consumers
For Chinese Gen Z and the millennial generations raised in periods of relative affluence, the game-like elements of surprise and excitement have stimulated buyer curiosity, even got some addicted. Strong subcultures have emerged, with a large additional market for modified toys and products.
These small boxes are big business to the highly-educated, white-collar, youthful buyers they attract. Women (often from first-tier cities) account for over 62% of blind box sales. Overall, a staggering 74% of consumers fall between the ages of 18-34.
According to Tmall, China’s largest online marketplace, about 200,000 post-95 consumers bought blind boxes from its platform in 2019, with each spending 20,000 yuan per year on average; some fanatics even shelled out 1 million yuan on this “game of chances” to get the coveted limited-edition toys.
With Gen-Zers and millennials highly valuing emotional value, creating prolonged interactions and genuine brand connections should be the centerpiece of any Chinese marketing strategy.
Brands have taken advantage of this by increasing the uniqueness of their products.
Remember the yellow dancing duck went viral on WeChat last June? Pokémon’s Psyduck, the adorable duck toy, was the giveaway toy for KFC's Children’s' Day meals. When the meal sets were available, two tags on the toy have been trending on Weibo, and more than 40 million posts have been published on Xiaohongshu, China's version of Instagram. Young Chinese went crazy about expressing themselves with the toy. Short videos and memes about the duck got liked easily.
Gen-Zers make the Psyduck mania when expressing themselves, as they expect to enjoy what they pay for. According to a survey on Gen Z's spending behaviors conducted by Communication University of China, nearly 84% of the young correspondents prioritize having fun from the bought products and put this factor in the first place, while about 82% are open to products which they can play with in new ways.
The brand Pokémon also leads the Gen Zers to the Psyduck, as they prefer products co-branding with famous intellectual properties. The mentioned poll also indicates that 66.36% of the interviewees weigh on IP when buying a products.
The Psyduck frenzy highlights the strong purchasing power of the younger generation. AppAnnie's data shows that China's Gen Zers, with a population of over 300 million, has spent more than 5 trillion yuan in 2021. The whole market is expected to reach 16 trillion yuan by 2035, according to a financial institution China Renaissance.
Overall, the unexpected mania on Psyduck toy might imply that feeding the spiritual demand of Gen Zers like expressing themselves could work up their consumption appetite to stay in this key market.
But then things got out of control and backfired. The toys were so few that the price rocketed. On Alibaba's second-hand trading platform Xianyu, the toy was priced at as high as 2,000 yuan, nearly 33 times more expensive than the KFC's meals up from 59 yuan. Some online merchants have taken things even further with an “eat on-behalf” service.
However, the extreme hunger marketing strategy could bear bitter fruit. KFC's co-branding with Pop Mart was heavily criticized for encouraging food waste by Chinese authorities, after local media reported a mystery box lover spent as much as 10,000 yuan buying more than 100 meal sets hoping to secure all the collectible toys and they often dumped the food.
And Pop Mart’s billion-dollar empire is also showing signs of slowing. The company’s net profit skyrocketed to hit 1 billion yuan in 2021 before shrinking 44 percent to 476 million yuan the next year.
Pop Mart closed 232 stores in 2022, while vending machines shut-downs also increased to 627. Apart from suffering store closures, revenue of Pop Mart's Tmall flagship store decreased from 598.9 million yuan in 2021 to 462.4 million yuan in 2022, down 22.8% year on year.
“人生就像一盒巧克力，你永远不知道下一颗是什么味道。”
这句《阿甘正传》中脍炙人口的经典台词，用来形容打开盲盒的乐趣也许是最合适不过了。
近年来，盲盒相关产品受到不少年轻消费者青睐，盲盒经营模式主要集中在潮流玩具领域，泡泡玛特等潮玩盲盒应运而生。随着“盲盒+”商业模式迅速发酵，通过盲盒形式销售商品或者提供服务的领域还在不断增加，商家为促销、促人气推出的“盲盒”可谓花样百出，不少品牌更是奉“盲盒”为其流量密码、营销噱头。
在这个“万物皆可盲盒”的时代，剩菜也被安排上了。
最近，这种“剩菜盲盒”正悄然成为一种时尚——商家将临过期食物以低于原价的盲盒形式售出，这种看起来既环保又省钱的方式，受到了一些年轻人的追捧。
其实，该概念中的“剩菜”并非传统意义上吃剩的菜肴，而是指一些超市、面包店等在打烊前尚未售出的食物。说白了，如今的“剩菜盲盒”，就是曾火爆一时的“临期食品”，现在穿上了“盲盒”的“马甲”，再次出现在人们的视野中。这些食品低于原价销售，消费者可通过平台预订，在商家规定的时间到店自取。
“剩菜盲盒”的走红并不出人意料。在消费者看来，“盲盒”这一形式有趣又充满新鲜感，最重要的是它价格实惠、划算；在商家看来，这种方式既帮商家清理了库存，又减少了浪费，何乐而不为？因此，买卖双方虽想法不同，但在“达成销售”方面却殊途同归，“剩菜盲盒”成为抢手货也就不难理解了。
然而，“剩菜盲盒”和其他盲盒一样，在经营过程中的过度营销、信息不透明、虚假宣传、“三无”产品、安全卫生隐患、售后服务不到位等问题也逐渐凸显，需要予以规范引导。
于是，随着昨日一纸盲盒新规“靴子落地”，备受争议的“泡泡玛特们”终于迎来了监管时代。
市场监管总局15日发布《盲盒经营行为规范指引（试行）》，明确了盲盒经营禁售清单，为盲盒经营划出红线，推动盲盒经营者加强合规治理。《指引》共二十九条，从盲盒定价、经营领域、商业宣传等方面规范盲盒经营行为。《指引》指出，对于不适宜进入盲盒领域的药品、医疗器械、活体动物、易燃易爆物品等，不得以盲盒形式销售；对于关系人民群众健康的化妆品、食品，作出限定性表述。鼓励盲盒经营者通过设定抽取时间、抽取金额上限和次数上限等方式，引导理性消费；鼓励盲盒经营者自觉承诺不囤货、不炒作、不直接进入二级市场。
此外，《指引》对盲盒销售对象的年龄作出了严格限制，要求不得向未满8周岁未成年人销售；向8周岁及以上未成年人销售盲盒商品，应当依法确认已取得相关监护人的同意。
另外，《指引》要求盲盒经营者提供商品或者服务应当明码标价，不得收取任何未予标明的费用，不得在标价之外加价出售商品，不得实施不按规定明码标价、哄抬价格、价格欺诈等违法行为。通过盲盒形式销售的，同一套系商品或者服务的成本差距不应过大。盲盒商品价格不应与相同非盲盒销售商品价格差距过大。
对于“剩菜盲盒”来说，《指引》虽未作出完全禁止性规定，但也指出了食品、化妆品与消费者身体健康密切相关，安全风险较大，为此，《指引》专门强调经营者要充分履行注意义务，避免以盲盒形式销售食品、化妆品带来安全和浪费等方面的风险。
又如去年肯德基推出“可达鸭盲盒”、“DIMOO联名款盲盒套餐”等所引发的食物浪费问题，《指引》第二十二条指出，食品经营者在从事食品销售、餐饮服务过程中附赠其他盲盒商品开展促销活动的，应当遵守《中华人民共和国反食品浪费法》有关规定。餐饮服务经营者不得诱导、误导消费者超量点餐。
小盲盒蕴藏大商机
盲盒文化源于美国，兴于日本。所谓盲盒，顾名思义，就是盒子里装着样式多样的可爱玩偶手办，但盒子上并没有标注具体是哪一款，以其限定款的饥饿营销方式，极大激发了消费者的购买欲和复购欲。专家认为，从宏观消费环境来看，在当下物质高度丰富的时代，销售已从贩卖商品发展为贩卖娱乐，“盲盒经济”的热潮也由此而来。
2019年前后，国内的盲盒经济逐渐升温。有调查显示，2019年国内盲盒行业市场规模为74亿元，预计2024年将突破300亿元。在高毛利率、高增长、创新的销售模式、新兴的年轻潮玩市场等因素吸引下，资本、上市公司纷纷抢滩盲盒市场，前景可期。
在盲盒市场里，最引人关注的就是在港股上市的泡泡玛特。根据其发布的招股书显示，2017年至2019年，泡泡玛特营收分别为1.581亿元、5.145亿元、16.834亿元，2018和2019年的营收增幅分别为225.4%、227.2%，连续两年保持高速增长。2017年至2019年，公司净利润分别为156万元、9952万元、4.51亿元，净利润3年暴涨近300倍。
“盲盒+”的营销方式日渐成为风气，以盲盒经济为延展的商业模式也在多个行业被复制、借鉴。2020年以来，麦当劳、上海迪士尼等众多商家都在营销中引入盲盒概念。宜家、名创优品、星巴克等也相继推出了系列盲盒产品，多家零售企业开始与代言人或热门IP联合，推出盲盒产品进行品牌营销。
还有像奢侈品牌LANVIN这样，通过一系列盲盒抽奖微信小程序互动游戏，将线上消费者引流至线下门店。具体来看，2020年七夕期间，LANVIN推出了盲盒抽奖活动，消费者花500元就能抽奖三次，必会中奖至少一次。中奖后消费者到线下自助售货机兑换LANVIN盲盒，消费者可能得到的是LANVIN丝巾、复古老爹鞋等产品的兑换券。这些单品零售价都远超过500元钱，确实诱惑力十足。
根据媒体报道，LANVIN这场盲盒互动游戏在一个月内吸引了5万个玩家参与，是品牌微信公众号文章日常平均阅读量的五倍。
艾媒咨询发布的《2020年中国盲盒行业发展现状及市场调研分析报告》显示，盲盒商家积极拥抱新渠道进行产品曝光和投放，盲盒市场需求旺盛，数据显示，2020年12月上半个月，1688平台盲盒及衍生品的成交额是11月同期的2.7倍，加工定制的买家数量同比增长300%；天猫海外盲盒消费增速同比增长400%。
盲盒营销瞄准Z世代
还记得去年那只会跳舞的小黄鸭，在儿童节期间疯狂刷屏朋友圈吗？
2022年六一儿童节，肯德基推出了新款儿童套餐，而这次的赠品，是和宝可梦联名的几个玩具：“皮卡丘水壶”、“皮卡丘八音盒”以及“可达鸭音乐盒”。
但令人意想不到的是，这次完售最快的，竟不是向来稳坐C位皮卡丘，而是呆萌的可达鸭。
可达鸭的火爆程度，明显超过肯德基原本的预期，备货量一时没能跟上，在这次的联动套餐推出一天之后，各地的肯德基餐厅就纷纷挂出了“可达鸭售罄”的公告。
凭借呆滞的眼神，魔性的扭身加音乐，可达鸭火遍全网，一“鸭”难求。一时间，人手一只可达鸭成为年轻人的社交硬通货。
“对于小朋友可能有点幼稚，但对于大人来说刚刚好”，各路网友甚至利用可达鸭僵硬又快速、一前一后摆动着的双手，玩出了花，让呆萌的可达鸭直接成为社媒顶流。
人们给可达鸭贴上各种文案，表达着自己的想法，“拒绝内卷”、“禁止摆烂”、“努力搞钱”等都是出现频率较高的词汇，这种玩法迅速在互联网上流传开来。
可以说，Z世代在宣泄情绪中，捧红了可达鸭。根据中国传媒大学的一份针对Z世代消费行为的调查报告，“获得乐趣”是83.75%的Z世代在消费时考虑的因素，且在所有消费目的中位列第一；而且82.08%的Z世代乐于尝试带来新玩法的商品。
上述调研数据显示，66.36%的Z世代在选择商品时会优先考虑IP联名，但其中的绝大多数不会因为IP去购买原本不需要的商品。简而言之，宝可梦的IP加成让年轻人优先选择可达鸭，但是开发出来的新玩法激发了Z世代的购买欲。
可达鸭热潮证明了，Z世代已逐渐成为消费的“主力”。AppAnnie数据显示，在中国，Z世代人口规模已接近3亿人，2021年撬动了超过5万亿的消费空间。而根据华兴资本发布的《中国创新经济报告2021》预测，中国Z世代整体消费规模到2035年将增长至16万亿人民币，是未来消费市场的关键。而可达鸭玩具的意外走红，或许可以给品牌以启示：关注年轻人的表达欲等精神需求。
但是，可达鸭的爆火，并且在短时间内达到令人匪夷所思的溢价，很快也“翻车”了。因为玩具数量太少，可达鸭玩具身价暴涨，原价为59-109元的肯德基套餐，在二手平台上一个玩具可以卖到2000元的高价，翻了最多有33倍多。不仅如此，还有人推出代吃服务，即买家出钱购买套餐，卖家吃掉套餐内食物并邮寄玩具。而部分代吃的价格为80-100元，也已高出套餐本身售价。
对此，人民日报发表评论称，“别让快乐添代价”，呼吁品牌勿过度追求饥饿营销，消费者也要理性消费，回归消费初衷。中国肯德基发布声明，不支持加价出售肯德基玩具的行为。
其实，这已经不是肯德基盲盒第一次翻车。2022年初，肯德基就因为在套餐中赠送泡泡玛特联名玩具“Dimoo”，从而引发消费者花钱找“代吃”，并被中国消费者协会点名批评。为集齐玩具，有消费者不惜一次性斥资10494元购买106份套餐；而消费者为集齐盲盒娃娃而找“代吃”时，还出现浪费食物的现象。在被今年的央视“315”晚会点名之后，泡泡玛特宣布暂停定制盲盒业务。
更有甚者，如今“盲盒”作为一个术语含义，已经从一种商品扩展到一种流行的营销策略，进一步增强了消费者的上瘾心理。反复花钱购买盲盒期间，消费者的经济状况和心理健康往往会恶化，这一“心理上瘾”特点类似于赌博。
对此，有“95后”玩家分析称，盲盒作品是大众易于接受的可爱形象，市场上盲盒的价格在39至59元不等，是绝大多数人都能承受的价格。一套盲盒系列玩偶手办少则几个，多则数十个，品牌商为了增加盲盒爱好者的兴趣，还会制作一些抽出概率更低的隐藏款和稀缺款。
隐藏款出现的概率极低，其设定很好地抓住了消费者心理。此外，对于年轻人来说，不仅仅是收藏，还有社交功能，一些论坛里面充斥着分享、炫耀、讨论、交换，这就促使玩家不停收集，产生复购行为。
艾媒咨询的数据显示，“95后”最“烧钱”的爱好中，盲盒手办排名第一。“95后”成为盲盒的重要消费用户，占比近4成，其中8.6%的用户可以接受盲盒单价在1000元以上。
此外，一项问卷调查显示，700人中有153人买盲盒是因为“热炒，赚快钱”。同时，消费者一旦抽中隐藏款，在一些二手交易平台交易价就能翻上四五十倍。有数据显示，仅在某电商平台上，一年有近20万在盲盒上年花费超过2万元的“硬核玩家”，购买力最强的消费者，一年购买盲盒甚至耗资百万元。
值得注意的是，盲盒经济的受众，不乏涉世未深的未成年人身影，他们对市场风险的识别能力相对较低。因此，他们容易被刻意夸大的“中奖”概率吸引，不断投入金钱去购买盲盒，以博得心仪的玩偶，或者在二手交易平台上花高价购买盲盒玩偶，认为可以保值升值，其实成为了被套路收割的对象。
（实习生戚婉莹对本文亦有贡献）
Executive Editor: Sonia YU
Editor: LI Yanxia
Host: Stephanie LI
Writer: Stephanie LI
Sound Editor: Stephanie LI
Graphic Designer: ZHENG Wenjing, LIAO Yuanni
Produced by 21st Century Business Herald Dept. of Overseas News.
Presented by SFC
编委: 于晓娜
策划、编辑：李艳霞
播音：李莹亮
撰稿：李莹亮
音频制作：李莹亮
设计：郑文静、廖苑妮